Just a few hundred votes could swing the outcome of the local elections in Richmond on Thursday based on the results from the last time residents went to the polls in 2018.

The major battle remains between the Liberal-Democrats and Conservatives with a very small margin between the two parties in a few key wards.

The make-up of the Council before these elections was 39 Lib-Dems, 11 Conservatives, 3 from the Green Party and 1 Independent Liberal.

Credit: Richmond Borough Council.

And on Thursday – May 5 - voters will have the opportunity to vote for three people in each of the 18 wards across the borough.

At the 2018 elections, a number of councillors were elected with a majority of fewer than 100 votes and in one case just a single vote made the difference. Consequently, a very small shift in allegiance or a decision by some to stay at home could shift the balance of the Council.

Using the 2018 results as a template, the figures suggest that, in theory, a strong performance for Labour in some tight contests might allow the Conservatives to oust sitting Lib-Dems.

However, the Conservatives in Richmond have been fighting an uphill battle given the standing of Boris Johnson in the polls following the outcry over the repeated breaking of Covid lockdown laws in Downing Street and the subsequent, alleged, misleading of Parliament.

Such is the concern, that the party's candidates in one ward, East Sheen, are labelling themselves as 'Local Conservatives' in order to draw a distinction with the party in Westminster.

Despite its lack of representation on the Council, Labour is fielding three candidates in every one of the 18 wards. The Green Party has six candidates and the Women's Equality Party is represented in three wards.

Credit: Richmond Borough Council.

The key marginals -

* Mortlake & Barnes has long been a Tory stronghold. The party narrowly missed out on a clean sweep of all three seats in 2018 when its third candidate was beaten by a rival Lib-Dem by a single vote. The picture is complicated by the fact that a prominent local figure, Simon Danciger, is standing as an independent.

* East Sheen is a particularly hard fought ward in 2022. Last time, the third place went to a Conservative who beat his nearest Lib-Dem by just 52 votes.

* Hampton Wick and South Teddington. In 2018, two seats went to the Lib-Dems and one to the Greens. The Conservatives missed out by a margin of just 96 to the Green party.

* Hampton North. Avril Coelho, who has a strong local following, was elected as a Lib-Dem last time round, but is standing as an independent on May 5 following a rift in the party. In 2018, she topped the poll ahead of three Conservatives.

* North Richmond. The Lib-Dems claimed all three seats in 2018, however the margin over the Conservative with most votes was just 27.

* South Richmond. While normally a Tory stronghold, the Lib-Dems claimed one of the three seats in 2018 by a margin of just 6 votes for former MEP Bill Newton Dunn.

* Heathfield. Labour's best hope of getting a councillor in 2022 seems to be in this ward. The party's candidate came in fourth in 2018 behind three Lib-Dems and, if successful this time, it would amount to a major breakthrough.

While many people will be following results from the counts across the country throughout the night, the latest information suggests the results from Richmond will not start emerging until around 5.30am on Friday morning.