Many thanks to Darren Bartlett Real Estate for this piece.

With most Twickenham families home schooling their children in lockdown and the forthcoming Stamp Duty Holiday deadline on the March 31, fewer properties have been coming onto the property market since the New Year.

This has prompted an 18% drop in the supply of Twickenham (TW1 and TW2 to be precise) homes for sale compared to October 2020 levels.

For the past couple of decades, like clockwork, local estate agents' busiest times for putting property onto the market is the New Year to Easter rush, with a smaller flurry of new properties coming onto the market in the mid/late summer.

Yet, since the easing of the first lockdown late last spring, nothing has been normal about our local property market.

Throughout the summer, the number of properties coming onto the market in Twickenham steadily rose to its peak in October and the number of properties then becoming sold subject to contract (stc) rose even higher.

And while statistics are not yet available, anecdotal evidence suggests there were just under 50% more Twickenham properties sold stc in the last six months of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019.

Number of homes for sale

The number of Twickenham properties on the market peaked in autumn at 591 – and the figure now stands at 485.

The first lockdown caused many local homeowners to want to move with the need for extra space to work from home and in some cases larger gardens. This was further exacerbated by home movers also trying to take advantage of the Stamp Duty holiday to save themselves money on this tax on moving home.

This meant many more properties came onto the market (more than a "normal" year) in the last six months of 2020. However, those home movers motivated to move for the extra space/save money on the tax, did so in the summer/autumn and have already placed their home on the market (and are probably by now sold stc rushing to get their house purchases through before the deadline on the tax savings).

So, how does Twickenham compare to other property markets, and what does this recent reduction in local properties on the market mean to Twickenham homeowners and landlords?

How town compares to national picture

There are 39% more properties on the market today in Twickenham, compared to 12 months ago.

This mirrors the situation in London. There are 39.5% more properties for sale than a year ago in the capital, while nationally, according to Zoopla, there are 12% fewer properties on the market today (compared to a year ago). Yet it gets a lot more interesting when you look at what type of property is on the market in London.

There are currently 47,900 apartments for sale in London compared to January 2020, when there were only 32,600 – a rise of 46.9% … all the more interesting when there are only 15.1% more London semi-detached houses for sale and 1.8% more London detached homes over the same 12-month period.

The jump in London apartments for sale is being pushed by an upsurge of London up-sizers eager to trade their city living apartment up to suburban houses, and a small handful of panicky London buy to let investors who are wanting to exit the London property market following falling rents for apartments.

Looking closer to home in Twickenham, there are 53% more apartments for sale in Twickenham than a year ago and 10% more detached homes.

So, while there are some differences between the supply of individual types of property in the area (e.g. apartments vs detached houses), the overall reduction in the number (i.e.supply) of properties for sale can only mean one thing, when there is a reduction in the supply of anything and demand remains stable, this will mean a decent level of upward pressure on Twickenham house prices in the short term (although I suspect there will be some downward pressure on apartments with that level of increase in supply – maybe some interesting 'opportunities').

Future health of the market

Will overall demand for Twickenham property continue to be stable?

Lockdown 3.0 will probably cause another wave of people who want to move home (thus increasing demand). The last property crash (the Credit Crunch in 2008/9) was caused by a huge increase in the supply of properties for sale in London when people lost their jobs and interest rates were much higher. People couldn't afford their mortgages and so dumped their homes onto the market all at the same time – causing an oversupply of property for sale and hence house prices dropped.

The number of London properties for sale increased from 66,250 in early 2007 to 100,200 in May 2008, a rise of 51%.

It was this increase in the level of property for sale in London that caused property prices to drop between 16% and 19% (depending on the type of property) in Twickenham over the 12 to 14 months of the Credit Crunch. So, whilst the local property market is slightly top heavy with apartments, as long as there is no sudden change in the demand or supply of properties and interest rates remain at their current ultra-low level – the medium-term prospects for the Twickenham property market look reasonably good (especially detached homes).

If you are a local homeowner or a local buy-to-let landlord and want to chat about the future of the Twickenham property market – do drop me a line.

Get in touch with Darren by calling 020 3879 1239/ 07792 254 016 or emailing [email protected]. Alternatively, you can reach him via his Facebook or Twitter.

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