Much of Richmond borough ‘could be under water by 2050’ claim scientists
By Rory Poulter
23rd Feb 2023 | Local News
Large swathes of Richmond borough bordering the Thames could be under water by 2050 due to climate change and rising sea levels, according to a new interactive map.
In theory, thousands of homes across Barnes, North Sheen and Mortlake through to Kew, most of Richmond town centre, parts of east Twickenham and St Margarets are under threat.
The predictions are at odds with reassurances from official watchdogs at the Environment Agency, who say they are 'reasonably confident' that the Thames Barrier will protect the population in low lying areas bordering the river through to 2070.
The new map, which shows land that is projected to be below the annual flood level in 2050, comes from Climate Central and combines the most advanced global model of coastal elevations with the latest projections for future flood levels.
The organisation describes itself as an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about the changing climate and how it affects people's lives.
The group said: "Climate change science is constantly evolving. Our maps are based on the latest sea-level projections, including those from the recently released Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report from an interagency US government task force."
Sea levels around Britain have risen by about 15cm since 1900, and with the acceleration of global warming in recent decades, the Met Office predicts modern levels could increase by another metre by 2100.
The Thames Barrier provides protection against water level rises along the tidal stretch of the River Thames through to Teddington Lock.
It was completed in 1984 in response to a disastrous sea surge and floods of 1953 that claimed hundreds of lives in the UK.
Policymakers in the UK decided that the risk of another such event to London's inhabitants and economy was too great to leave them without protection.
Since then, the barrier has been raised far more often than had been originally predicted, an increase that is likely to be at least partly due to climate change.
Speaking recently, the chairman of the Environment Agency, Alan Lovell, said the barrier is being raised around five times a year, which compares to original predictions of once a year. But, he insisted residents of the capital should be reassured that the Barrier will continue to protect them through to 2070.
He said: "Although the Barrier was built to hold back storm surges, since the 1990s increasingly intense rainfall events have also seen it raised at low tide on several occasions to create space for water that's arrived from the other direction.
"We are constantly surveying the future, but we are reasonably confident that this Barrier will continue to provide protection until at least 2070, but we need to think creatively about how we can transform the estuary edges.
"We want Londoners to feel secure, to enjoy their river, and without being cut off from the river that makes London what it is.
The barrier was originally designed to protect London from a very large flood (1 in 100 years) up to 2030.
As climate change and rising sea levels are creating a higher risk of flooding in London, improvements to the Thames Barrier and its flood management will be needed to keep on protecting the capital.
The Thames Estuary 2100 project has been set up with the aim of developing a strategic flood risk management plan for London and the Thames estuary through to the end of the century.
If you would like to see how London could change due to rising water levels you can visit the interactive map here - https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/14/-0.2894/51.4692/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=year&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&forecast_year=2050&pathway=ssp3rcp70&percentile=p50&refresh=true&return_level=return_level_1&rl_model=gtsr&slr_model=ipcc_2021_med
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